Los Angeles Capital’s investment philosophy is based on its proprietary concept of Investor Preference Theory®. This innovative and dynamic concept forms the DNA of the investment process and guides the research team in its search for alpha. The unique aspect of the philosophy is that it allows the investment team to develop a “living” model that captures the views of today’s equity investor and is not based on backward biases and long history. The final result is a portfolio that adapts to today’s economic environment.
Investor Preference Theory
Los Angeles Capital’s investment philosophy is based on Investor Preference Theory®, a concept unique to the firm and developed by the firm’s founders. Investor Preference Theory states that “an expected return of a stock is a function of its risk characteristics and the price (or expected risk premium) the market assigns to each characteristic.” The key to the philosophy is developing proprietary techniques to estimate how investors price risk in a global equity market given that equity risk premiums are not directly observable. Once estimated, the risk premiums are combined with the stock’s exposure to each premium to calculate today’s expected return for a stock. This innovative investment philosophy is applied throughout the security selection, portfolio construction, and trading steps of the process. Rather than making static assumptions about the characteristics of superior investments, the philosophy recognizes that investor preferences for specific characteristics evolve with changing economic and market conditions.
The firm's investment philosophy is designed to address fundamental investment questions, “How do investors view key equity risks in the current market environment? How are investor decisions influencing the price of risk?” Three decades of quantitative research suggests that shifts in valuations, business, and market conditions create new equilibrium prices for a variety of risk factors. Do investors care more about the risk of inflation or deflation? Forward looking earnings estimates or reported results? The safety of strong balance sheets or the opportunities of an improving economy on weaker balance sheets? These are just a few of the many factors captured in the process.
Whereas most pricing models (e.g., CAPM or APT) provide a framework for estimating risk and return based on a fixed, long-term definition of risk, Investor Preference Theory® provides a flexible framework for estimating returns and risks as market conditions change.
Why Adopt a New Approach?
Most managers focus on the identification of stock characteristics that have generated excess returns historically. By the end of the 1970s, the dominance of small stocks led investors to conclude smaller companies were better able to adapt to changing market conditions and had higher risk which provided them with a small stock premium. In the 1980s, value's dominance over growth led to the broadly held view that investors overpay for growth stocks. A decade later, investors shifted their views as global prosperity, a benign inflationary environment and falling trade barriers created an environment where multi-national growth companies held a competitive advantage. By the end of the decade with the capitalization of internet companies reaching $2 trillion, investors declared that the information revolution had just begun, that the destiny of brick and mortar companies was bleak, and that the valuations of the post venture sector of the market were in fact warranted. Today, investors talk about the impact of higher oil prices as capital chases alternative energy sources just as it did thirty years earlier.
History suggests that investors are overly influenced by the past in forming their investment views regarding tomorrow's investment opportunities and market inefficiencies. What's the risk with such thinking? Embracing the consensus view as to why past factor returns will likely repeat, regardless of how rational the argument, frequently contributes to under-performance in subsequent periods.
The problem extends beyond the obvious one of chasing yesterday's winners. In a more subtle fashion, changes in market structure can impact an investor's risk management process, forcing higher exposures to risks which have become over-priced. This in fact happened to many portfolio managers during the 1990's, who, despite their misgivings over the valuations of internet companies, succumbed to the pressures of risk management and purchased internet companies at their peak.
What are Investor Preferences?
Investor preferences include any stock characteristics that investors believe represent either a favorable or an unfavorable risk impacting the value of a stock. Over a market cycle, investors assign values or prices to a variety of risk characteristics such as market factors (e.g., market capitalization, price momentum), income statement and balance sheet measures (e.g., E/P or B/P), analyst expectations (e.g., estimate revision, earnings surprise), and sector risks (e.g., Technology, Internet, Health Care, etc.).
To better understand how these preferences change through time, one may look at historic factor returns, calculated to isolate one factor’s performance from another. By analyzing these returns it becomes quite clear that investor preferences are not random, but evolve as investor views change over the market cycle. Price movements are in fact quite similar to the more familiar pricing behavior of systematic risks in the fixed income markets, such as credit and prepayment spreads or duration risk.
Who Shapes Investor Preferences?
Investor preferences are shaped by Wall Street analysts, academics, institutional account managers, retail mutual fund managers, and private equity investors. While stock prices may display random walk characteristics, investor preferences evolve through time, creating discernible prices.
Research shows that investor preferences are generally applied across the market with a couple of exceptions. While capital flows freely across the growth and value spectrum, plan sponsors generally control the allocation between large and small cap stocks. In fact, given the segmentation in the management of large vs. small capitalization portfolios, it is not surprising that preferences would differ. In addition, while global capital flows across regions we observe that investors in different regions frequently price risk differently. Thus, we need to take into account the fact that global markets are not fully integrated in terms of pricing specific components of risk.
How Are Preferences Measured?
For more than twenty-five years, quantitative managers have measured factor returns through an analysis of monthly stock returns. By disaggregating common factor and sector effects, as much as two-thirds of a stock's excess return can be explained. While traditional methods are useful for performance attribution and risk measurement, Los Angeles Capital has identified several enhancements that extract greater information content from the analysis, providing more stable and reliable returns.
Once returns for each factor have been estimated, a forecast is made to determine the new equilibrium price of each risk today. This information is translated into discrete alpha estimates for each security in our universe. Each alpha estimate is derived by multiplying each security's exposure to approximately 20 risk characteristics, by the price, (i.e., expected return) of each those characteristics.
Los Angeles Capital employs an innovative investment process for security selection and portfolio construction that gradually adjusts a portfolio to changes in market conditions. We recognize that investor preferences for specific risk characteristics evolve with shifts in the economic environment, and thus we believe a dynamic process is critical to achieving consistent results. Our quantitative valuation model provides transparency with regard to the source of both risk and return for each stock in a client's portfolio and risk budgets are managed dynamically to ensure the best return to risk trade-off at each point in time. The firm’s investment process is outlined below.
The process is split into two main phases. Developing a stock’s alpha is performed within the Dynamic Alpha Stock Selection Model® in the first three steps. Then, using these alphas, Portfolio Management constructs customized portfolios and executes trades through the firm’s trading desk.
Dynamic Alpha Stock Selection Model
Los Angeles Capital's Dynamic Alpha Stock Selection Model® technology (the "Model") generates alpha estimates on more than 9,000 global securities. It employs a factor-based approach, rigorously measuring and analyzing fundamental, sector, and country variables that Los Angeles Capital believes are important to investors as they buy and sell securities. Returns are calculated for each factor. Next, forecasts for each factor are generated. There is no bias or preconception of what that forecast should be, nor is it forced to be zero if it is negative. It is accepted that investors understand how and why a factor is priced, based on their appetite for risk. Once the expectation is determined for each factor, then each stock’s exposure to that factor is considered. Stock alphas are a function of exposures to each factor multiplied by the factor forecast. Because of the strict adherence to the above process, the criteria for selecting stocks are systematic and comprehensive. However, since the Model is adaptive, it does not have the same difficulty at inflection points that static quantitative models face.
Performance attribution shows that the majority of the alpha generated historically comes from fundamental factors and a positive but smaller component from sector or country factors. Our approach to sector/country management is unique in that a sector/country represents one component of a stock’s return. In other words, sector/country classification is treated as a risk factor in a similar fashion to the fundamental factors mentioned above. As a result, sector and country weights in the portfolio are determined based on the attractiveness of individual securities on a bottom up basis.
Portfolio Management is responsible for using the output of the Model, risk estimates, and technology developed by the firm’s Research Department to build client tailored portfolios. While Los Angeles Capital's Dynamic Alpha Stock Selection Model® drives the investment process, the Portfolio Managers provide an integral link between Research, Trading, Operations, and clients.
The following exhibit describes how client requirements are combined with Los Angeles Capital's proprietary market expectations to develop a client portfolio.
Los Angeles Capital’s investment philosophy is based on its proprietary concept of Investor Preference Theory®. This innovative and dynamic concept forms the DNA of the investment process and guides the research team in search of alpha. The unique aspect of the philosophy is that it allows the investment team to develop a “living” model that captures the views of today’s equity investor and is not based on backward biases and long history.
While achieving clients’ return objectives is our primary focus, there is an ancillary benefit to the investment process. The process also produces returns that generally have a low correlation with other managers as the portfolios change with the market environment.